2018 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast

2018 AIA Consensus Construction Forecast

With construction spending continuing on an upward trajectory, 2016 can be considered a successful year for the nonresidential building sector. For the coming year, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast is projecting growth in overall nonresidential building spending of almost 6%, just below the pace of growth for 2016. The commercial construction sectors – retail, office, and hotel – will continue to lead the building recovery, while industrial construction is projected to see almost no increase this year. For 2018, the institutional construction sectors will generate much of the growth, particularly the large education structures market.

“Though most conditions look favorable, virtually every segment of the design and construction market is reporting that recruiting and retaining qualified staff is a growing issue,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Many workers left the industry during the downturn, and others left the workforce entirely, and rebuilding a competent and productive workforce is a challenge, particularly when the national unemployment rate is below 5 percent.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts



Overall nonresidential building 5.60% 4.90%
Commercial/industrial 8.30% 4.40%
Office space 10.60% 4.60%
Hotels 7.20% 1.80%
Retail 6.80% 5.30%
Industrial facilities 0.40% 3.30%
Institutional 5.70% 5.80%
Amusement/recreation 7.70% 4.30%
Education 6.30% 6.70%
Healthcare facilities 4.90% 4.90%
Public safety -0.70% 4.00%
Religious -1.90% 0.60%



Consensus Construction Forecast December 2016